Climate Diplomacy Briefing - December 2025

Bad maths, bad impacts, big oil: What’s next post COP30?

Break after Colombia’s intervention (Photo: © UN Climate Change - Lara Murillo)

On balance
“My overall sense is that the wheels came off in Belém. My conviction is that this is not a bad thing”, said ex-UN climate boss Yvo de Boer. Many will agree with his view that the future rests with “coalitions of the willing”. The world is fractured, the US gone, the EU weakened. Instead, China and its Brics allies flexed their muscles: a new era dawns. The final deal was “hard won”, said Beijing’s envoy Li Gao. What was won is not obvious.

1200
Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka are among SE Asia countries hit by heavy rain since COP (45cm in 24 hours, reports the BBC, the heaviest in 300 years), leaving an estimated 1,200 dead. Cyclones Senyar and Ditwah have impacted 4 million people, with rains submerging towns and sweeping away roads. In Sri Lanka, the president said authorities were currently engaged in the biggest rescue and relief operation in the country’s history.

OPEC: Fussed
The oil barons seem non-plussed by the COP30 Mutirão package. Output levels will remain the same through Q1 2026. Market fundamentals are “healthy”, reads a 30 Nov statement from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE among others. The $30bn energy ‘deal’ Washington and Riyadh agreed on 19 Nov has gas, oil & nuclear at its core. Petrobras added some Mutirão icing, rolling out a $109bn spending plan through to 2030 while Canada PM Carney signed off an oil pipeline.

Hat-trick
Closer scrutiny of the deals landed at COP30 reveals there are three sets of plans/roadmaps aimed at cutting oil, gas & coal use. None will send immediate chills down the spines of the barons, although it’s worth noting Saudi Arabia, Russia and OPEC allies were diligent in their efforts to block all references to fossil fuels. That possibly speaks to the enduring utility of the UN climate process. Presumably, if it didn’t matter, they wouldn’t bother.

(i) Global Implementation Accelerator (para 41, Mutirão): This is inspired by the 2025 Global Tipping Points report and its accompanying 12 recommendations. They include cutting methane and protecting nature, policies to accelerate the transition off fossil fuels and reducing the cost of capital in developing countries. “This report is therefore not only a warning but a guide”, COP boss Do Lago said at its Oct launch. Still, GIA deets remain sketchy.

(ii) Mission 1.5 (para 31, Mutirão): Launched at COP28, it’s not entirely clear what the Mission 1.5 roadmap has achieved. All said, it got a nod at COP30 and (according to this paper by IDDRI) should be used to drive through the 3x of clean energy & upscaling of power grids agreed at COP28. It will be effective “if it succeeds in helping countries to resolutely shift away from incremental short-sighted action”, argues IDDRI. In its current form, it’s not succeeding.

(iii) Fossil/forest roadmaps: “President André Corrêa do Lago will present his own document. Our COP30 team will consult various stakeholders to develop a roadmap and report back by COP31”, COP30 CEO Ana Toni wrote after the summit wrapped. Don’t hold your breath, but given 85 countries plus Brazil President Lula and environment minister Marina Silva asked for it, odds are the COP30 crew need to deliver something a little more detailed than the Turin Papyrus Map.

*Wild theories: MBS visits DJT 18 Nov. Trump lifts agri tariffs on Brazil 20 Nov. Mutirão lands 20 Nov.
*Tame Mutirão: Did not ask folks to do much, judging by Carbon Brief’s analysis.
*Wild lines: “COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking.” UN climate boss Stiell
*Tame feedback: ed.king@gsccnetwork.org & lindsay.smith@gsccnetwork.org

Maths: 39
One tool the COP30 team may need to get up to speed with in early 2026 is an Excel spreadsheet. Efforts to land a transition roadmap in the text were stymied by COP boss Do Lago, who told the EU that 80+ countries opposed it. Carbon Brief reports the ‘informal list’ the Presidency used “contains a variety of contradictions and likely errors”. A more accurate figure could be 39 of mainly oil producing nations, posits the Brief team. Que surpresa. Shame there’s no COP VAR.

Keen: 85
As for the countries who backed a ‘roadmap’, we’ll find out if there are more than 85 who turn up to the 28-29 April summit hosted in Colombia with support from the Netherlands. An initial 24 countries backed a ‘Belém declaration’ on fossil fuel transitions, swinging behind the proposed meeting. The aim is to “identify legal, economic, and social pathways” for a transition, said a Colombian minister. COP30 boss Do Lago backed the move in his closing remarks. We shall see.

G20: 19
As Brazil was dealing with a COP-closing crisis largely of its own making, the G20 minus US agreed to a gruel-thin statement on climate. “Most members recognise the importance of addressing climate-related financial risks”, the group said. The document encouraged countries to work up net-zero targets and recognised the need for “deep, rapid and sustained” GHG cuts. To go by Carbon Brief’s verb analysis: a lot of watching and not much doing.

AOSIS: 0
Judging by an insipid showing in Belém, one previous titan of global climate talks appears to be gently fading into the night. The group of 39 small island states was largely quiet. The last PR on its website is from 28 Oct. It’s unclear why: threats from the US and a $2.4bn investment by Saudi Arabia in the Caribbean are one theory. What we do know is the AOSIS chair Ilana Seid left COP early to fly to Monaco for a knighthood. “We were happy”, was Seid’s reported post COP30 comment.

$120bn/40%
The deal on adaptation cash isn’t as high as many had hoped, but it will be at least 40% (more than the current < $100bn) of the $300bn slated to roll out by 2035. While the baseline isn’t clear, it’s almost certainly at least $40bn in 2025 and may well be more when accounting for all MDB finance. “A tripling of the goal is possible, but countries need to seize this moment”, says the crew at WRI. Take your wins where you can.

Secrets: Lots
“The persistent lack of transparency as negotiations increasingly take place behind closed doors risks the erosion of trust in the process, already at low levels”, said CAN International, an alliance of 1,000+ NGOs post COP. As the influential ENB-IISD bulletin noted on 20 Nov, “participants were greeted with a very light negotiation schedule” as Brazil kept all talks tight. Good for control, less ideal if you value transparency. Turkey, take note.

UN vibes: “I think my view of COP is a bit like the Churchill view of democracy: it is the least-worst system we have”. UK climate chief Ed Miliband to the UK Parliament post Belém.

Global vibes:
*Bangladesh: “Mutirão text exposes a central truth: climate-vulnerable nations are still being pushed into debt for a crisis they did not create”. [link]
*Brazil: Was COP a success? Not yet, but Do Lago and his team “continue fighting hard for an accelerated reduction in emissions”. [link]
*China: Outcome was hard won. “If [countries] choose to decouple from China, their low-carbon transition will inevitably falter.” [link/link]
*Ethiopia: “...another chapter in the long story of how Africa keeps conceding ground.” [link]
*EU: Arrived “bruised” from 2040 climate plan tensions, struggled to create unity within the bloc, and attempted to fill US shoes with limited success. [link]
*Germany: “Belém has shown that the new world order of electric and petro-states is becoming more established.” [link]
*India: Power shift palpable, with India’s trade and finance concerns going some way to being addressed. [link]
*Indonesia: Criticised at COP30 for focusing on carbon trading/coal instead of committing to a clear fossil fuel phaseout and more decisive climate action. [link]
*Pakistan: “The global pledge to triple adaptation finance by 2035 is welcome but too late for a country facing harsher heatwaves, water stress.” [link]
*Panama: Belém failed in its aim to bring together UN processes for climate, nature and desertification. [link]

Action Agenda - deals
$1 trillion by 2030 for clean energy, grids and storage (UNEZA)
$9bn for land, agriculture and food systems
$12.5bn for the ASEAN Power Grid
$17.5bn for energy efficiency
$213.5m co-financing for hydrogen programs.
(We used Mistral.ai to do this - if you’ve got better numbers pls ping us)

December key dates
24 - Christmas Eve
25 - Christmas Day
26 - Sheffield Wednesday v Hull/Boxing Day Ashes Test

Canada: Carnage
Damning. As delicate and pointed as a rapier. Steven Guilbeault’s resignation from Canada PM Mark Carney’s cabinet was brutal. Buried in the polite prose is the clear assertion that Carney is ruthlessly ripping up Ottawa’s environmental rules. “He gets it”, was the cryptic follow up from former enviro chief Catherine McKenna (Canadians never swear). Oil-lovin Carney, meanwhile, has a new theory of change: variable geometry. Mr Tragedy of the Horizon 2015 has sailed off the edge.

US: Carnage
If you’re an animal, plant, tree, stream or a fish in the US, all bets are off after a “week from hell”, reports the New York Times. The EPA is ripping up laws and guardrails. 55 million acres of wetlands and 1.3 billion acres of coastal waters are at risk. And the Clean Water Act. Many missed the rollbacks as they “came on the same day that Mr. Trump signed legislation calling on the Justice Department to make public its files on the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein”.

NDC watch: 122 lodged, 74% of global GHG, but still no sign of Saudi Arabia or India
Decade, dock: 10 years of climate lawsuits

#1 - 2026
No doubt what the big climate moment of 2026 will be (clue, not COP31 or the US mid-terms). It’s China’s 2026-2030 5-Year-Plan. The world’s clean tech factory and chief coal guzzler is aiming to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and accelerate the ‘green transformation’. Beijing has won the EV battery race & dominates wind and solar. It’s unclear if this means imminent coal cuts (probably not). Key aims are ensuring its advanced manufacturing sector thrives and resilience vs the US grows.

Xinhua 24/11: “Official projections suggest that by 2030, fossil fuels will account for less than 75 percent of total energy consumption” (oil peaking 2026, coal peaking 2027).

#2 - 2026
The second big moment could be shifts on geoengineering - long resisted but now gathering pace. One ‘totally real plan to blot out the sun’ reported by Politico involves stratospheric aerosol injection. This Jan 2025 paper in Earth System Governance details the range of start-ups involved, working on balloons filled with sulphur dioxide and ocean iron fertilisation. Who pays big bucks for the ‘cooling credits’ is the big and, as yet, unanswered question.

#3 - 2026
“In the first three quarters of 2025, solar and wind grew fast enough to keep up with demand, stagnating fossil fuel growth… there are some indications that this is a structural shift”, writes Ember’s Richard Black. In 2026 we’ll find out. AI is expected to double power demand by 2030 says the IEA. Given tight timeframes, wind & solar are the best bet for AI/data, says a Sept 2025 JPMorgan analysis. A new US ‘Genesis Mission’ backs nuclear fusion, ETA 15-20 years.

That’s all for December. Our thanks to Seth Borenstein for nominating ‘Ghost Town’ as our play out tune. Oh for the days of the Hangar.

Ed & Lindsay