Climate Diplomacy Brief - May 2026
Oil prices spike, OPEC melts and a global meeting on phasing out fossil fuels ends (weirdly) with a sense of optimism
$122
Timing, as Arsenal’s ponderous striker Viktor Gyökeres can attest, is everything. And so, just as 57 countries were wrapping up 3 days of talks on phasing out fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, OPEC started to implode and oil prices hit $122 a barrel. The jump came after President Trump suggested the US-Iran impasse could last for months. Cue reports of more inflation hikes, stock drops and bond wobbles. “The damage is done”, says IEA boss Birol.
Urgency
The Middle East war “laid bare” the need to accelerate the energy transition, said the co-hosts Colombia & Netherlands in their 15-page summary of Santa Marta. There was (quelle surprise) no big deal on cutting oil, gas & coal. But a second big meet in 2027 is planned in Tuvalu. A report will be handed to COP30 hosts Brazil ahead of June UN talks in Bonn. Outcomes will feed into COP31. It’s a far more solid start than many predicted.
WTF: “I’m going to be honest. [At] first I was like: ‘What the f*ck am I doing here?’” - the Carbon Brief Santa Marta review is worth a flick.
Fresh
Santa Marta is where the liberator of much of South America, Simón Bolívar, died in 1830. Maybe it’s where the dream of a faster fossil fuel phaseout came alive. Those at the meet - which included diplomats, scientists, activists and energy system wonks - spoke of a ‘can-do’ spirit of collaboration. For some present, the fossil fuel debate shifted from ‘if’ to ‘how’. It’s not impossible a lack of Wi-Fi access in the plenary helped.
*Rachel Kyte, UK climate envoy: “This meeting is a proof point that we can talk maturely about something which is really difficult and goes to the very heart of economic security and energy security… The crisis in Iran and the Middle East and [the] war-induced oil price crisis will make it more likely countries need to pivot to cleaner energy quickly.”
*Ana Toni, Executive Director of COP30: “Santa Marta has been a genuine exchange - something we truly needed. For COP30, it is essential to make clear that we are entering a new decade: a decade of implementation.”
*Tina Stege, Climate Envoy for the Marshall Islands: “There is a strong recognition that what we’re doing here can complement the COP process and needs to inform that process.”
*Momoh Abubakar Eshiokpekha, Nigeria minister: “[It is] not about whether extraction must decline but how to organise the decline in a fair and equitable way across countries.”
*Juan Monterrey, Panama climate envoy: “Santa Marta is historic because this is the first time that we can open our hearts, open our brains and have a real conversation without a stupid point of order, without a stupid procedural process that derails the entire session and we’re left with only 10 minutes to talk about substance.”
Oh là là
France stole the show for some, becoming the first major economy to drop a fossil-fuel exit plan. “We have a clear objective to end fossil fuels with clear dates: 2030 for coal, 2045 for oil and 2050 for gas”, reads the Parisian tome. The plan includes targets for heat pumps, electric vehicles, nuclear, hydro, wind and solar. It also piles pressure on others yet to deliver, notably Brazil, the Netherlands, EU and UK who all fielded questions in Santa Marta.
Ionic, Doric
For some reason, diplomatic folk love to talk about ‘pillars’. Maybe they’re all frustrated architects or neo-classical fanatics. The ‘three pillars’ from Santa Marta are landing more roadmaps, smoothing clean trade and stumping up the cash. Also of note is the ‘science panel’ to provide technical and scientific support given the IEA has been muzzled by the US.
COP31 - pens
Australia/Turkey will now find the push for roadmaps hard to dodge, especially given the pre-COP event is in Tuvalu. On 30 April at the IEA, COP31 boss Murat Kurum said his goal was to “accelerate the clean energy transition”. His 13 April letter to governments uses the same language. Kurum also writes that COP will be guided by the principles of ‘dialogue, consensus, and action’. Good luck with that.
COP31 - action
Fears Antalya could be a negotiation slug-fest are likely overblown. The days of big global treaties are over for now, writes a UN official. COP Presidencies seem increasingly keen to amp up the ‘Action Agenda’ and showcase progress. So far, AA outcomes (and comms) have been mixed. Analysis of the 22 April Petersberg Climate Dialogue suggests a focus on smaller coalitions of countries on electrification & solar (as per EU speech) is one to track.
*Tracking action - Who’s doing what on clean energy in 2026
*Tracking emissions - Close to decline and fall, say CAT analysts
COP32
Worrying news from Addis Ababa - host of the 2028 COP - where Amnesty International says a media crackdown is escalating. The editor of the Addis Standard was “abducted” on 15 April, the latest in a long line of journalist abductions. Tensions with Eritrea are also simmering, reports DW, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed keen to regain access to the Red Sea.
IMO - incoming
Six months on from US efforts to trash a global shipping deal on emissions, envoys are having it out back at the IMO. The EU, UK, Australia, Brazil, China & Pacific broadly back plans for a carbon price on ships bigger than 5,000 tonnes. The US, Saudi and others do not. DC’s tactics have shifted from direct threats to old-school leaflets claiming the costs of an IMO deal are $150bn (10x higher than official estimates). Talks close COP on 1 May.
Modi: Green
Solar, wind, nuclear. India PM Modi’s X account was on a clean energy roll in April, hailing “a power miracle” in becoming the world’s “2nd-largest solar market” after China. India now has 150GW of solar and power spot prices are falling to near-zero during peak solar hours. Still, the current heatwave saw power demand peak at 256.1GW on 25 April, underlining how climate impacts are ratcheting up pressure on Delhi.
UNSG race
Four candidates are in the running to replace Guterres. Chile’s Michelle Bachelet has the strongest climate record; Argentina’s Rafael Grossi (IAEA boss) styles himself a climate pragmatist (i.e. unlikely to lead); UNCTAD boss Rebeca Grynspan talks a decent climate game; while Senegal’s Macky Sal is pro energy of all sorts. Expect more candidates to emerge later in the year; probably don’t expect a climate leader like Ban Ki Moon or Guterres.
May days
8-9: 48th ASEAN Leaders Summit (Cebu, Philippines)
11-12: OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (Paris, France)
20-21: Copenhagen Climate Ministerial (Copenhagen, Denmark)
28: Informal online meetings on Plastics treaty negotiations
28-29: Blue economy + finance forum (Monaco)
IMF/WB - review
Buried deep in the IMF’s 2026 Global Financial Stability Report is a call for countries to accelerate the energy transition. Same story in its 2026 World Economic Outlook. Bosses Banga and Georgieva have to play nice with the White House (see Scott Beasant’s latest climate attack lines here) but reality appears to be biting. Hard. Both indicated at the Spring Meetings they now have to hustle near $150bn to deal with the US-Iran war fallout.
Deals, deals
*EU-South Korea agreement on critical minerals, batteries
*UK-Turkey partnership (incl. climate & energy security)
*EU-Malaysia FTA close to signing (incl. energy transition coop)
*US-EU launch strategic partnership on critical minerals
Dependence
In 2025, ‘abundance’ was the hot new word, courtesy of Ezra Klein. Roll on a year and ‘dependance’ is the energy + climate trigger warning, as countries inch from fossil fuel addiction to new forms of energy that bring their own risks. This paper from Loom Strategy reveals concerns from 20 national security experts across the EU: risks from China are perceived as “serious and systemic” and, as yet, Europe appears blind to the challenge.
Gimme sun
Think tank ODI asked 313 officials in developing countries what energy investments they wanted. The results (in classic, clickbait style), may astound you.
*79% - investment in solar photovoltaics
*54% - hydropower plants
*47% - wind energy
*3% - coal-fired electric power plants
*3% - oil-fired electric power plants
*13% - gas electric power plants.
Useful: NRDC’s climate finance tracker (updated March 2026)
Decent: Iran energy war cost tracker ($29bn as of 30 April)
Bookmark: Kingsmill Bond on the 2020s twin fossil fuel crises
Wow: JPMorgan runs through incoming climate costs
Bowls, empty
Rice crops + low fertiliser supplies + El Nino = bad news, say wonks at food think tank IFPRI. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and much of Southeast Asia rely heavily on nitrogen fertiliser from the Gulf. Given tightening stocks of urea, sulphur and ammonia, there is a “coming global food crisis” reports the FT. “More sustainable farming is both possible and necessary”, writes Adam Hanieh, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute.
Impacts: Bad
*Canada: 19 wildfires come early due to dry and warm weather
*Hawaii: Heavy rains persisted after March saw rainfall highs 3,000% above historical levels
*India: Temps well above normal, hitting 45C, putting millions at risk
*Japan: 1,400 firefighters, consecutive days of wildfires, impacting over 3,000 people
*New Zealand: Third major weather event to hit the North Island
*Saudi Arabia: Rainfall 162% higher than usual causes widespread disruption
*Thailand: Temps hit 42C, officials warn against heatstroke
*US: Drought, fires worsened by climate in the Southeast, marine-heatwaves on the West
Country/regional roundup
Africa
Of $1.3bn adaptation project proposals, nearly $134m has been approved so far. Kenya’s Climate Envoy has been elected chair of the board of the Adaptation Fund, while the country prepares to host the African Forward Summit to look at financial reform, climate and the blue economy. Nigeria passed a green tax targeting big engine vehicles and announced a zero import tariff on EVs - a big deal given transport emissions are the second biggest source in Nigeria. In South Africa, an Indian firm issued a $34m guarantee to back solar expansion.
Argentina
Early April saw Congress weaken laws that protect glaciers, handing over decisions on whether to open them up to mining to provincial governments. Nearly one million people have signed a legal petition against the reforms.
Australia
“No one has said this [Iran] crisis is a reminder that we need to be more reliant on fossil fuels”, said climate and energy minister Chris Brown when talking about his optimism for progress at COP31. While the government is unlikely to impose a 25% LNG export revenue tax in the May budget, calls for the levy are growing. Gas companies are shaken, launching a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign to spook the government into sticking with the status quo.
Bangladesh
Power deficits across the country led to 8-10 hours of load shedding in rural areas and a rethink of renewables by the government. More than 30 cancelled projects are now being reassessed and major solar expansion by 2030 has been announced. As LNG prices doubled and the energy minister talked of ‘financial strain’ while trying to secure cargoes, business leaders called for an expansion of renewables.
Canada
PM Carney’s first act after sweeping wins in by-elections was to suspend federal petrol taxes. As the move is set to reduce fuel prices by 10 cents a litre, campaigners call it the ‘right problem with the wrong solution’, as fossil fuel companies rake in tens of billions in profits.
A Canada Energy Regulator’s report found oil and gas emissions on the rise, while Royal Bank of Canada and Scotiabank cite the Fed’s climate rollbacks as part of the reason they’ve backed away from climate targets. Alberta is in the firing line as it looks set to erase its own emissions progress from phasing out coal by allowing a new AI data centre powered by gas.
China
EVs stole the show in Beijing at the world’s largest Auto Show. Chinese brand BYD showed off one model that can hit over 300mph with a battery that can charge to 70% in just 5 minutes. Chinese manufacturers exported 30% more EVs in March than February as demand rose in the wake of the Iran fuel crisis.
Egypt
PM Mostafa Madbouly aims for 45% renewable power by 2028 in response to the Iran war and its impacts on markets.
Europe
Amid volatile fossil fuel markets, EU experts are calling for a ‘climate reset’ as the Commission publishes its AccelerateEU, a plan to weather the energy price shock. The plan includes a push to help families switch to clean energy and ramping up grid upgrades. A new electrification target is expected before the summer, aiming to ensure electricity is taxed less than fossil fuels.
While climate was left off the table during G7 talks in Paris, a high level event next week is likely to see France push on EU methane regulation.
Indonesia
Iran conflict-driven oil shocks have led to the need for an extra $5.9bn in energy subsidies for oil and gas majors. Japan pulled together Indonesia and other members of the Asia Zero-Emissions Community (AZEC) to work out a finance package of $9.6bn aimed at helping secure oil supply in the short term and build energy security in the long term.
Mexico
President Claudia Sheinbaum has gone from green energy scientist to fracking backer, shocking environmentalists and the scientific community. She’s citing energy sovereignty, with Mexico getting 75% of its gas from the US.
UK
Shipping and aviation emissions will be formally included in national carbon budgets from 2033 onwards.
US
Just 30% of Americans approve of what Trump’s doing on the economy, with 42% saying they’re satisfied with efforts to preserve the environment, a sharp decline in the last decade. Things are so bad that even the European far right now finds him toxic. To tackle the massive emissions from data centres, states like Georgia are signing off on BYONCE, or “Bring Your Own Clean Energy.” It allows companies to work directly with renewable providers rather than relying on the state grid.
That’s all for May. Big thanks to the team for the inputs and edits. We leave you with the glorious Mexican star Silvana Estrada.
Ed, Lindsay & Sanjali